Can OpenAI really monetise intelligence?

AI isn’t just changing how we write emails or plan holidays anymore. It’s changing how the biggest tech companies in the world think about making money. OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, started out as a nonprofit research lab focused on the future of artificial intelligence. But fast-forward to today, and they’re projecting over $125 billion in revenue by 2029, with plans to monetise everything from user subscriptions to affiliate clicks.

So what does this mean for the future of AI? And more specifically for us, what could it mean for SEO, small business owners, and the everyday ChatGPT user? Because this isn’t just about AI progression anymore. It’s about whose profiting from intelligence itself.

OpenAI has released its’ future monetisation plans for ChatGPT

OpenAI began its journey in 2015 as a nonprofit organisation with the goal of ensuring that artificial general intelligence (AGI) benefits all of humanity. Fast forward to 2025, and the landscape has dramatically shifted. OpenAI now projects a staggering $125 billion in revenue by 2029, with plans to reach $174 billion by 2030. These projections are anchored in revenue streams like AI agents, ChatGPT subscriptions, API access, and monetising free users through unspecified new products.

What's really interesting, is that CEO Sam Altman has also floated the idea of generating revenue through affiliate fees or taking a percentage of sales generated via user searches. Meaning that similar to how blog or social media affiliate links work, if ChatGPT gives you a link to a product or service that you click on and then buy, ChatGPT will take a cut.

From a business profit perspective, this naturally makes sense. However, this strategy seems at odds with OpenAI's original (importantly not for profit) mission.

Relying on affiliate fees could compromise the objectivity of AI recommendations, potentially prioritising profit over user value. And, this model isn't groundbreaking; it's actually a well-trodden path in the digital economy. It's basically a modern extension of the Google ad model, where you can pay for a top ranking spot.

Google's Ad revenue should be a cautionary tale to OpenAI

It’s also an interesting time for CEO Sam Altman to float the idea of generating revenue through affiliate fees or taking a percentage of sales generated via user searches. Only recently have we seen the news that Google’s advertising revenue (a very similar one to that Altman appears to be alluding to), is showing signs of slowing growth.

In Q4 2024, Google's ad revenue reached $72.46 billion, marking a 10.6% year-over-year increase. However, this growth rate was slower compared to previous years and missed analyst expectations (source: MarketingDive).  

This deceleration is attributed to several factors, including the rise of AI-driven search tools that provide direct answers, reducing the need for users to click through to websites. Additionally, younger audiences are shifting their search behaviours, favouring platforms like TikTok and Amazon over traditional search engines. We’ve seen claims that “Googling is for old people.” And whilst this approach favours ChatGPT, if they’re considering moving to a model where they can monetise on providing links to select websites in their Chat responses, that’s clearly not what the younger audience wants from them.

OpenAI's exploration of affiliate-based monetisation must consider these trends. As AI tools become more prevalent, user trust and engagement will hinge on the perceived objectivity and value of the recommendations provided.

ChatGPTs’ $50 billion subscription ambition

OpenAI also aims to generate $50 billion from ChatGPT subscriptions by 2029. As of 2025, ChatGPT boasts 20 million paying subscribers, contributing to a projected $12.7 billion in revenue for the year. While this growth is impressive, reaching the $50 billion target would require a significant expansion of the user base and possibly higher subscription tiers.

The introduction of specialised AI agents, like "Operator," capable of performing complex tasks such as browsing and shopping on behalf of users, could justify premium pricing. But the success of this strategy hinges on user adoption and the perceived value of these advanced features.

The AI market is becoming increasingly competitive, with players like Anthropic's Claude AI gaining traction. Claude's website traffic surged from 4 million users in December 2023 to 18.8 million in November 2024. Only a few months ago, I personally believed the latest (at the time) Claude model was better than the ChatGPT equivalent. And as I felt reluctant to pay for another AI model subscription, debated cancelling my ChatGPT subscription and instead moving to Claude. I know a lot of other people that had the same thought process, and this shows how loyalty to a single AI platform is far from guaranteed.

This is nothing new in tech. Take video call software as an example. Skype was one of the biggest OG’s in the space, but as they started to slip with staying on top of improving their experience and adapting to technological advancements, the likes of Zoom swept in. It helped that Zoom had the perfect storm of the Covid environment to really get ahead, but it shows how once a better option of Zoom came along, no one had any loyalty to Skype. And again for me, after a few years of being a true Zoom advocate, I’m now on Google Meets, because that's what I now deem to be the best video platform for small businesses.

The number of competitors to ChatGPT are only going to grow, and OpenAI must continuously innovate and deliver superior value to retain its user base. Any missteps in monetisation strategies could drive users toward competitors offering more transparent or user-friendly models.

What does this mean for SEO in the age of AI monetisation?

The integration of AI into search and recommendation systems is reshaping the SEO landscape. AI models, trained on vast datasets, often exhibit biases towards popular or frequently mentioned content. This "popularity bias" (for means of a better word) means that well-established brands or products with significant online presence are more likely to be recommended by AI tools.

For small businesses, this presents a challenge. Traditional SEO strategies may no longer suffice in ensuring visibility within AI-driven platforms. So to adapt, businesses should consider:

• Diversifying content: It can no longer only be about your website. You'll need to look at how you can create varied and high-quality content across multiple platforms to increase online presence.

• Engaging with AI platforms: AI advancements are extremely fast paced. It can seem like a full time job to keep up with them (on top of all the hats business owners are already wearing). But understanding how AI tools source and prioritise information can help inform your content strategies.

• Building authority: Establishing credibility through backlinks, reviews, and expert endorsements can enhance visibility in AI recommendations. This has lots of overlap with traditional SEO best practices. But importantly shows that 'paid for' backlinks will only continue to be even worse for your brand, as high quality content that gets people talking will be much more valuable.

But it also offers ample opportunity for small businesses to get ahead. The shifting digital landscape underscores the importance of adaptable and forward-thinking strategies for small businesses. As AI continues to influence consumer behaviour and information dissemination, businesses must:

• Stay informed on the technological advancements and the implications for marketing and customer engagement.

• Invest in digital literacy, so AI can be used to empower your business.

• Seek expert guidance, and collaborate with professionals who specialise in digital strategy (oh hi) and can provide valuable insights and business direction.

While SEO is most definitely not dead, its evolution will require a more nuanced and proactive approach. Our Business Blueprint service is designed to assist small businesses in navigating these complexities, offering tailored strategies to thrive in an AI-influenced market.

Navigating the future of AI monetisation

OpenAI's monetisation journey reflects a broader trend in the tech industry: the commercialisation of AI. While profitability is essential for sustainability, it's crucial to balance financial goals with ethical considerations and user trust.

The risk lies in prioritising revenue over the core mission, potentially compromising the integrity of AI outputs. As OpenAI navigates this path, transparency and user-centric approaches will be vital to maintaining credibility. Striking the right balance between innovation, profitability, and ethical responsibility will determine the long-term success and acceptance of AI in our daily lives.

And as business owners, we need to ask: if intelligence is now a product—who controls it, who profits from it, and how do we stay visible in a world where even truth might be pay-to-play?

Interested in aligning your small business strategy with the evolving AI landscape? Explore our Business Blueprint service to stay ahead of the curve.